SARS-CoV-2 Update for April 30th
An early and strong vaccination campaign has insulated the United States from the largest global wave yet. Cases, deaths, and vaccinations are all declining within the United States.
The Counterpoint is a newsletter that uses both analytic and holistic thinking to examine the wider world. My goal is that you find it ‘worth reading’ rather than it necessarily ‘being right.’ Expect regular updates on the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic as well as essays on a variety of topics. I appreciate any and all sharing or subscriptions.
Throughout most of 2020, this newsletter had dedicated United States and international updates. When the winter surge worsened, our coverage turned inward and focused solely on the US. News and events were unfolding too rapidly. As the United States has descended from it’s peak of over 3,000 daily deaths, international situations and data have been mentioned but not given the full attention they deserve.
Let me be clear: the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has never been so severe. The seven-day average for global daily cases is 823,023, an all-time high (below, top). The seven-day average for global daily deaths is 13,380, just below the all-time high (below, bottom). If you consider that vaccination campaigns target the most at-risk populations first, it’s quite likely global daily deaths are at relative all-time highs.
The prime example of the current severity of the situation is India, whose numbers should leave every person speechless. There is nothing I could write to convey the level of crisis that is unfolding there. Both daily cases and daily deaths charts shown below, the United States shown for comparison on the latter.
Unfortunately, the Indian reality is even worse than the charts. Adjusting for access to testing and positivity rates, it’s possible that India is experiencing over 10 million cases per day. Even with crematoriums running at max capacity, they cannot keep up with the bodies. Funeral pyres burn in the street 24 hours per day. It’s quite likely the true death toll is well over 10,000 per day.
To be clear, it’s not just India. The world is at all-time high case counts because most of the globe is dealing with large waves. Below are daily cases graphs for nine countries, including even pandemic ‘over-achievers' such as South Korea and Thailand, that are all dealing with large waves. These nine countries represent ~800 million people. Add India and that is ~25% of global population dealing of extremely large waves in just those ten countries alone. The wave in Japan is threatening the Olympic Games.
We are watching vaccination work in real time. Compare the above graphs with those of Israel, the United Kingdom, and the United States, the three largest countries to have hit >40% of the population vaccinated.
Fortunately, global vaccinations continue to scale. Today, the global seven-day average of daily vaccinations surpassed 20 million for the first time (below). Unfortunately, this means ~17 months to cover just 75% of global population. However, the Biden administration is making global vaccination a top priority, first, releasing our 60 million doses of the (unauthorized-in-US) AstraZeneca vaccine for shipment abroad, and second, providing emergency assistance to India, including both oxygen and PPE, but also materials needed to make vaccines (India is a major vaccine manufacturer).
Ultimately, the COVID-19 pandemic is far from over. It’s quite likely that 2021 will be deadlier than 2020. Cumulative deaths this year are ~1.35M. On April 30, 2020, they were 217K.
Due to our robust vaccination campaign, the United States has been insulated from this latest global wave. Cases are declining within the United States. The seven-day average of daily cases is 51,357, the lowest since mid-October.
As mentioned, this is due to our extremely aggressive vaccinations. Credit to both the Trump and Biden administration, and most importantly the public health and medical professionals that are on the front lines of organizing, distributing, and dosing these life-saving shots. ~43.3% of the United States is at least partially vaccinated and ~30.0% is fully vaccinated.
Unfortunately, daily vaccinations have steadily declined over the past two weeks. The seven-day average of daily vaccinations have declined from a peak of 3.38 million per day on April 14th to 2.63 million today. The exact cause of this decline is unknown and probably due to multiple issues such as vaccine hesitancy and harder to reach populations.
One thing we can rule out is supply issues: the United States has never had so much vaccine. We currently have over 68 million doses in reserve, an all-time high. This represents ~26 days of supply at current vaccination pace, should no additional doses be distributed.
Whatever the cause, the decline in vaccination pace isn’t not ideal. The national numbers are again hiding a small intra-US wave. Fortunately, the last mini-wave in Michigan is descending, but cases are rising in a few Western states (below). Washington and Oregon are re-tightening public health measures.
Slowly but surely the immunity within the United States increase. A simple model suggests ~215 million Americans carry immunity, ~119 million from vaccination and ~96 million from natural infection. This ~215 million assumes no one infected has been vaccinated and vice versa, which of course isn’t true, but the point is that with every passing day the end of the pandemic draws closer. But the end isn’t here yet. Please continue to follow all local public health measures and even more importantly, encourage everyone you know to schedule their vaccination as soon as possible.
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