The Election Wasn't a Red Wave
Dousing cold water onto the Republican landslide narratives.
The Counterpoint is a free newsletter that uses both analytic and holistic thinking to examine the wider world. My goal is that you find it ‘worth reading’ rather than it necessarily ‘being right.’ Expect monthly updates and essays on a variety of topics. I appreciate any and all sharing or subscriptions.
Last Tuesday, we had a free and fair election in which Donald Trump won both the electoral college and the popular vote, and the GOP won majorities in both the Senate and the House of Representatives. They are likely to further entrench their control of the Supreme Court for a generation.
The “decisive victory” and “transformative” takes write themselves. Trump himself is claiming to have a “an unprecedented and powerful mandate.”
But if we just scratch below the surface, that isn’t what happened on Tuesday.
If 2016 Wasn’t A Landslide…
In 2016, Donald Trump won the electoral college because of receiving ~78,000 more votes in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
In 2024, Donald Trump won the electoral college because of receiving ~250,000 more votes in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
Even outside the three “blue wall” states, while Trump did sweep all seven swing states, he only won >51% of the vote in two of them, North Carolina (51.1%) and Arizona (52.5%).
Of course, a big difference between Trump’s victories is that he won the popular vote this time. He is currently leading the popular vote by ~2.5%, but that is currently estimated to decline to ~1.5%. Besides for 2000 and 2016 (when the winning candidate lost the popular vote), that is the smallest popular vote victory margin since 1968.
And the Congressional results are even more telling.
When Trump lost the popular vote in 2016, the GOP ended up with 241 House seats and 52 Senate seats. Yet in 2024, when Trump won the popular vote, the GOP is projected to end up with ~220 House seats and ~53 Senate seats.
The Worst Environment For Incumbents In History
For the first time since 1905, every incumbent party facing election in a developed country this year lost vote share.
Seriously, read that again: for the first time in history, every incumbent party facing election in a developed country this year lost vote share. The last few years of pandemic recovery, inflation, and geopolitical conflict have been chaotic and confusing, and voters have been taken their pent-up frustration out on incumbent parties, regardless of which side of the political spectrum they are on (for example, conservative parties in the UK and Japan lost this year).
Despite these strong headwinds against incumbents, the Harris campaign was quite impressive at navigating them. Across the seven battleground states, the 2020 to 2024 swing towards Trump was ~3.1%. Across the other 43 states and DC, it was more than double that, with a ~6.7% swing. In other words, where the Harris campaign focused reduced the anti-incumbent shift by ~3.5%.
And remember, Harris was just ~250,000 votes in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania combined from winning.
There Is No MAGA, There Is Trump
North Carolina voted resoundingly for Donald Trump, by nearly 3.5%.
Yet they also elected the Democratic candidate for governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general, secretary of state, superintendent of public education, flipped a House of Representatives seat, and broke the Republican supermajority in the state’s general assembly.
This down ballot outperformance by Democrats was a consistent pattern. For example, in the Senate races, essentially every Democratic candidate overperformed Harris, leading to several victories in states that Trump won, included Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
But what is interesting is that the results suggest not only ticket-splitting, but many people who voted only for Trump. This “voting only for Trump” occurred in most swing states.
Donald Trump is a reality TV star and a billionaire who was name dropped in hip-hop music for decades. He was a President who literally sent out checks with his signature on them and a candidate that survived assassination attempts. Everyone reading this probably knows a person that worships him in ways no one thought a politician could be worshipped. People simply like him; he is a showman that has cultivated a cult of personality.
Even before the election, it was known that the Trump was targeting low-propensity voters. The only question was whether or not they’d actually show up to vote. And they did, but the results suggest many only voted for him and left the rest of the ballot blank. Trump, specifically, was the attractor.
Of course, the GOP now has the opportunity to solidify and broaden their support past Trump. Whether this is possible and whether they can do it are the questions that will impact every election for a generation.
Last Tuesday, we had a free and fair election. Donald Trump and the GOP achieved a sweep that many thought not possible.
But it wasn’t a red wave. It was a narrow victory that took an unusually charismatic outsider candidate drawing a surge in low-propensity voters while running against the Vice President of an unpopular incumbent in the most anti-incumbent environment in history.
Time will tell if the GOP overplays their hand.
You may also like: Pandemic Lesson #4: Was Donald Trump the Best Of All Possible Worlds?