SARS-CoV-2 Update for October 24th
While the Delta wave continues to descend, absolute case numbers continue to be elevated. Vaccination rates remain inadequate while 'cold & flu' season looms.
The Counterpoint is a free newsletter that uses both analytic and holistic thinking to examine the wider world. My goal is that you find it ‘worth reading’ rather than it necessarily ‘being right.’ Expect regular updates on the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic as well as essays on a variety of topics. I appreciate any and all sharing or subscriptions.
The Delta wave continues to resolve, with the seven-day average of daily cases down to 72,461 cases per day. There have been 45,418,697 total confirmed cases within the United States.
While declining cases are undoubtedly better than increasing, 72,000 cases per day is still a very high absolute number of cases. For comparison, this is higher than the peaks of the first, second, and fourth waves.
You can watch the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the below visualization, credit to David A West.
The most important thing to monitor is your local conditions; the 72,000 daily cases are not distributed equally across the US. While case loads in the Southern epicenters of the Delta Wave have fallen ~90%, a handful of states are at or near their Delta peaks. Michigan, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Idaho, and Minnesota shown below.
What should cause us concern is the current snapshot of the United States (below). All of the highest spread states are in the Northern half of the nation.
Now, it could be the case that Delta simply ‘burned through’ the entirety of the South, and they’ve achieved enough immunity to keep things under control. But it also could be the case that we’re seeing the first signs of a seasonal winter wave. If you watched the visualization above, the 2020 winter wave started in the upper Great Plains states and spread outward.
Of course, we didn’t have the vaccines last winter and they will play the primary role in preventing any potential winter wave in 2021 from reaching the size of the 2020 winter wave. But with the United State’s subpar vaccination rate, the increased transmissibility of the Delta variant, the continue removal of public health restrictions, and the coming colder weather, SARS-CoV-2 is likely to be a continued strain on the health care system.
Only 57.4% of the United States is fully vaccinated (below, top), less than nations such as El Salvador, Morocco, Hungary, or Cuba. We are the least vaccinated first-world nation. The seven-day average of daily vaccinations is only 772,744 (below, bottom) and this number includes booster shots. Only 6.6% of the fully vaccinated have received a booster.
This subpar vaccination rate isn’t because of a lack of vaccine supply. In fact, the United States is swimming in vaccines. We currently have 90.6 million vaccines in reserves, waiting to be dosed. This is 117 days supply at the current vaccination rate. These record high reserves are despite the United States having donated over 200 million vaccines abroad.
The most important thing you can do to protect yourself, your family, and your community is to schedule your vaccination, and if already fully vaccinated (two shots), then schedule your booster shot today. In the first randomized and controlled clinical trial, a Pfizer booster was 96% effective at reducing symptomatic COVID-19 compared to those with only two shots.
All adults that have received any vaccine are now eligible for boosters if they are six months past their second dose (if Pfizer or Moderna) or first dose (if J&J). Mix and match of vaccines allowed.1 I would advise an extremely liberal interpretation of the “immunocompromised, underlying conditions, high-risk occupations, and living in high-risk areas” qualifications placed on adults aged 18-64.
I signed up for a booster at my local CVS and was in and out in 15 minutes. As mentioned above, the US is overflowing with vaccines and you will not be ‘taking someone else’s’ by signing up.
On October 1st, the United States passed a grim milestone: 700,000 confirmed deaths from COVID-19. As much as we’d like to put the pandemic behind us, we are still in the thick of it. Here on October 24th, the death total stands 735,930 and the seven-day average of daily deaths is 1,656.
36,000 Americans have died from COVID-19 in October with a full week left in the month.
Please continue to wear a mask when in public, focus on ventilation and fresh airflow, and schedule your initial vaccination or booster dose for as soon as possible.
If you received a Johnson & Johnson vaccine, the evidence suggests you should choose one of the mRNA vaccines for your booster. If you’ve been previous infected with COVID-19, one vaccination is suggested, again, preferably one of the mRNA vaccines.