Lots and lots of assumptions by a self-described "generalist" from a 30,000 foot view using preliminary (early) 2022-2023 season data to make seemingly overly confident generalizations, none of which have been reviewed or checked by epidemiological or immunological specialists. For example, 2022-2023 flu season has barely even started and you have no way of knowing what influenza hospitalization numbers will be a month from now or 3 months from now. Yet you already feel confident enough to declare the surprisingly early influenza wave we're seeing will end suddenly and no more for the several months remaining in the season, so for 2023, "all signs suggest it is normal in magnitude and severity." Wow. Do you know where one can procure a crystal ball like the one you apparently have?
At least allow me to suggest the title should perhaps be re-written with a little less hasty certitude and finality as such:
Thanks for the comment, Keenan. I'm a career biomedical scientist who works with T cells and viruses. You are correct that we don't know how the rest of the season will unfold but both influenza and RSV hospitalizations have been dropping for multiple weeks, COVID hospitalizations for the non-elderly have been essentially flat for ten months, monkeypox cases nearing zero, etc, etc. If the data changes, my view will change.
The short answer is that we don't really know. Population level epidemiology for respiratory viruses is affected by so many factors that it's impossible to predict other than in broad strokes. Some years have a single peak, while others have three or four. Exactly why? Nobody knows.
Keep in mind that influenza does have several different families and strains spreading around (e.g. H1N1 vs H3N2, etc., influenza A vs influenza B, etc.). It's quite possible that this is a factor.
An early influenza wave with declining (preliminary) hospitalization numbers for multiple weeks in December tells you ZERO about how many or how high later peaks may be for the next few months. There is a good probability we will see a higher influenza peak in the next few months than we saw in December. Many epidemiologists are worried that such an unusually strong wave so early in the season points to a really bad flu season, rather than your assumption that it's mostly behind us already.
Lots and lots of assumptions by a self-described "generalist" from a 30,000 foot view using preliminary (early) 2022-2023 season data to make seemingly overly confident generalizations, none of which have been reviewed or checked by epidemiological or immunological specialists. For example, 2022-2023 flu season has barely even started and you have no way of knowing what influenza hospitalization numbers will be a month from now or 3 months from now. Yet you already feel confident enough to declare the surprisingly early influenza wave we're seeing will end suddenly and no more for the several months remaining in the season, so for 2023, "all signs suggest it is normal in magnitude and severity." Wow. Do you know where one can procure a crystal ball like the one you apparently have?
At least allow me to suggest the title should perhaps be re-written with a little less hasty certitude and finality as such:
̶O̶u̶r̶ ̶I̶m̶m̶u̶n̶e̶ ̶S̶y̶s̶t̶e̶m̶s̶ ̶W̶e̶r̶e̶n̶'̶t̶ ̶D̶a̶m̶a̶g̶e̶d̶ ̶b̶y̶ ̶S̶A̶R̶S̶-̶C̶o̶V̶-̶2̶
If Our Immune Systems Were Damaged, I'm Not Yet Seeing Significant Increases In Frequency/Morbidity Of Regular Disease Or Opportunistic Infections
And, I might suggest you reach out to some experts/specialists to double check some of your numerous assumptions.
Thanks for the comment, Keenan. I'm a career biomedical scientist who works with T cells and viruses. You are correct that we don't know how the rest of the season will unfold but both influenza and RSV hospitalizations have been dropping for multiple weeks, COVID hospitalizations for the non-elderly have been essentially flat for ten months, monkeypox cases nearing zero, etc, etc. If the data changes, my view will change.
How did the early 2023 season flu track with your prediction?
Linked below is an interactive graphic from Caitlin Rivers that compares the last ~20 influenza seasons.
2023's season came on hard but then dropped off quickly. Overall a mild to moderate season.
2024's season was much worse by nearly every metric.
https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/WO8FS/1/
Thank you! There appears to be seasonally intermittent crests at week 13 and 19 (and at week 25, though only for the 19/20 season). What causes this?
The short answer is that we don't really know. Population level epidemiology for respiratory viruses is affected by so many factors that it's impossible to predict other than in broad strokes. Some years have a single peak, while others have three or four. Exactly why? Nobody knows.
Keep in mind that influenza does have several different families and strains spreading around (e.g. H1N1 vs H3N2, etc., influenza A vs influenza B, etc.). It's quite possible that this is a factor.
An early influenza wave with declining (preliminary) hospitalization numbers for multiple weeks in December tells you ZERO about how many or how high later peaks may be for the next few months. There is a good probability we will see a higher influenza peak in the next few months than we saw in December. Many epidemiologists are worried that such an unusually strong wave so early in the season points to a really bad flu season, rather than your assumption that it's mostly behind us already.