Pandemic Lesson #5: No One Is Stopping Us But Ourselves
The final of five lingering thoughts that I'm taking away from the pandemic: We must give happiness a meaning once more to peoples poisoned by the misery of the century.
The Counterpoint is a free newsletter that uses both analytic and holistic thinking to examine the wider world. My goal is that you find it ‘worth reading’ rather than it necessarily ‘being right.’ Expect monthly updates and essays on a variety of topics. I appreciate any and all sharing or subscriptions.
I started “Pandemic Lesson #2: The Complexity Ocean” with the same thought experiment, but it’s one that bears repeating:
Imagine that in December 2019, we assembled a conference of 1,000 experts from a broad range of disciples. The goal of the conference would be to make predictions about the coming decade.
At the very first session, we'd inform them that the first four and a half years of the 2020s would see:
A global pandemic that killed over 1,200,000 Americans and 18-34 million globally, the largest economic contraction and highest unemployment rate since the Great Depression (below), record drug overdoses, a widespread surge in homicides and automobile fatalities, nationwide racial justice protests, one of the most contentious presidential elections in American history, eventually leading to an insurrection at the US Capitol, the first open warfare between European nation states since World War 2, renewed conflict in the Middle East and Red Sea, historic wildfires and heatwaves in the American west, a historic ice storm shutting down Texas' electrical grid, the highest levels of inflation since 1981, record high oil and gas prices, two stock market corrections, and the national debt rising to over $32 trillion.
Given that information, how likely is it that the 1,000 experts would've predicted:
Unemployment near 70 year lows (above), labor participation rates near pre-pandemic highs, the stock market at record highs, incomes that have outpaced inflation, record housing prices and equity, record economic well-being of US households, a decrease in household debt service as a percent of disposal income, the most rapid vaccine development in human history which has remained effective against multiple more transmissible and/or more lethal variants, a massive increase in retail sales, an American manufacturing boom (below), and that the United States would be the fastest growing G7 economy.
Over the past couple years, I have become affiliated with the “Doomer Optimism” community1. It’s a wide-ranging and heterodox sphere, but mainly centered on agriculture, community resilience, local production, ecology, climate change, and building regenerative paths to a better future. I even had the privilege of co-hosting an episode of its podcast.
This community has been one of the best parts of my life since I discovered it. But, as the name suggests, there are certain strands of "doom" that occur within it. And these strands aren’t just within this niche online community, but appear to have become interwoven in broader society. There is a large and looming pessimism that has ingrained itself within us (below).
Let me state clearly: I have never been more optimistic about America, humanity, and our shared future. I categorically reject any and all notions of "doom" and societal malaise. There will be no collapse, apocalypse, nor return.
Do not mistake this for naivety. I am well aware of the world's many problems: a continuously-warming climate and widespread ecological destruction, geopolitical frictions between nuclear-stocked global superpowers while the military-industrial complex salivates on the sidelines at the potential profit, mass affluence and mass consumption that breeds widespread apathy and disillusionment, technological surveillance and shareholder capitalism that supercharge exploitation and rent-seeking for profit and control, populist demagogues that harvest disdain and malcontent for power and prestige, breakdowns of social trust and rising social isolation and inequality, and exponentially increasing complexity and interconnectedness causing a global polycrisis. Yes, doom always sounds smart, negativity always sells.
Yet something similar could’ve been said at any point in the past, when the vast majority of the population lived in poverty, when we were one bad harvest away from famine, when maternal and infant mortality were commonplace, simple infections could be deadly and regular pandemics were unstoppable acts of God, when essentially no one could read and civil and human rights did not exist, social mobility and economic opportunity were nil, and today’s everyday comforts such as central heating, plumbing, and grocery stores did not exist. There have always been problems; there will always be problems. We are not owed utopia, yet somehow humanity found a way to keep marching toward progress.
One could claim that modernity's problems are much greater than those faced by previous generations. But any recognition of this problems should also come with the recognition of our own abilities and understanding. Never before has our comprehension of the world been so deep, our mastery so through. The structure of DNA was unknown when my grandparents were in school; two generations later, we sequence individual tumors to determine which treatment would be best. Atomic energy began with atrocity and potential doomsday, now it peacefully supplies ~20% of our national energy production. The 1918 H1N1 influenza killed ~2% of the world’s population; a century later, the COVID-19 killed ~0.3%, nearly a full log less, largely because of the most rapid vaccine development in human history. There are thousands of such examples, often overlooked, about how our individual lives and broader human society have improved and continue to improve.
Again, do not mistake my optimism for naivety. On gloomy days, the doomer narratives can absolutely resonate with me. But I consciously decide to cultivate the awareness and the freedom to choose optimism, the discipline and the effort to work toward and focus on the good that is all around us, if only we have the eyes to see it.
Since the beginning of the pandemic, I have continually found myself returning to Albert Camus’ short essay, “The Almond Trees,” some of which is quoted below:
"We have not overcome our condition, and yet we know it better. We know that we live in contradiction, but we also know that we must refuse this contradiction and do what is needed to reduce it. Our task as men is to find the few principles that will calm the infinite anguish of free souls. We must mend what has been torn apart, make justice imaginable again in a world so obviously unjust, give happiness a meaning once more to peoples poisoned by the misery of the century. Naturally, it is a superhuman task. But superhuman is the term for tasks we take a long time to accomplish, that’s all.
Perhaps unashamed optimism is such a superhuman task, but we cannot dwell on doom or allow ourselves to be poisoned by the misery of modernity. Rather, we must celebrate the strength and wonder of our humanity, our capacity for love, community, knowledge, and stewardship. Each day I try to work toward these ideals on whatever little patch of Earth is beneath my feet. I hope that you will join me. Together we will go further than we can imagine.
No one is stopping us but ourselves.
Other Pandemic Lessons:
“Pandemic Lesson #1: Ashes to Ashes, Dust to Dust,” was about our chronic underinvestment in the physical world.
“Pandemic Lesson #2: The Complexity Ocean,” was about the growing complexity of the modern world.
“Pandemic Lesson #3: We Need an Air-Quality Revolution,” was about a simple change that would improve multiple aspects of our lives.
“Pandemic Lesson #4: Was Donald Trump the Best Of All Possible Worlds?” was a retrospective ‘hot take’ on the Trump Administration.
Other Pandemic Newsletters:
“No, Long COVID Doesn't Affect 25% of Kids,” was an in-depth breakdown of a meta-analysis that falsely claimed that the incidence of Long COVID in children was ~25%
“Our Immune Systems Weren't Damaged by SARS-CoV-2,” was combatting the widespread claims that COVID irreparably damaged our immune systems.
“A Better Way To Lockdown,” was a theoretical exploration of a simple change that would improve '“lockdown” effectiveness and compliance.